Russia is gearing up for a protracted conflict and seems intent on dragging Europe into an arms race, banking on the notion that economic strength wins wars. Putin is determined to avenge Moscow’s Cold War defeat and seeks a return to the Yalta-Potsdam world order, with China as a guarantor of this new-old system. In this context, it's crucial to understand that for Putin, Ukraine is a battleground in a war against the West, explicitly stating that while Russia conducts a "special military operation" in Ukraine, it is indeed fighting the West.
This message is underscored by the dramatic reshuffling within the Russian government: the replacement of the failed Defense Minister Shoigu with Andrey Belousov, the First Deputy Prime Minister from the economic bloc. Alongside Belousov's appointment, Shoigu's team was also replaced, including notable arrests among the outgoing officials. New deputy ministers were appointed, notably the alleged relative of the President, Anna Tsivileva, and the son of a former Prime Minister, Pavel Fradkov. Shoigu's dismissal was met with schadenfreude within military circles, raising the legitimate question about the new defense minister — who is he?
Belousov’s official biography provides limited insights. He is an economist with extensive experience in economic research and policy development, holding various academic and governmental positions. He served as the Minister of Economic Development from 2012 to 2013 and later as an Assistant to the President on economic issues. In 2020, Belousov was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, playing a crucial role in developing socio-economic policies, managing financial markets, and overseeing infrastructure projects.
The emergence of unexpected and unknown personalities has become a hallmark of Putin’s administration. Few knew his second Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, the head of the Presidential Administration Anton Vaino, or other key players until Putin appointed them to top positions. Indeed, Putin himself rose to power in a similar fashion when Yeltsin named him as his successor in 1999.
Analyzing such reshuffles is challenging because traditional Kremlinology tools still heavily rely on examining the order of Soviet leaders on the tribune. However, in the 21st century, open data provides sufficient information about these closed processes to identify trends that explain, and possibly predict, changes in power structures based on data analysis. At The Russia Program at George Washington University,
we actively develop this approach and, in this article, illustrate how data helps us understand Belousov's role, his future goals, and the management model Putin is moving towards.
Who is Mr. Belousov?